The SHIRAZ model allows the user to track fish populations through their life stages and habitats, and then back to the spawning grounds. A transformation function allows hatchery spawners in the river to produce natural fish (based on the input of stray rates). Stochastic variability and uncertainty in functional relationships can be introduced into the model, and then multiple simulations can be used to develop a distribution of outcomes or quasi-confidence intervals based on model assumptions. This approach can also be used to estimate species extinction risk or predict population trends over time following initiation of a habitat action. SHIRAZ runs on a Microsoft Excel platform. Currently the Muckleshoot Indian Tribe is using SHIRAZ in the Green/Duwamish Rivers and NOAA Fisheries is applying SHIRAZ to the Snohomish River.
The following references are recommended for additional information on the SHIRAZ model:
Bartz, K. K., K. M. Lagueux, M. D. Scheuerell, T. Beechie, A. D. Hass, and M. H. Ruckelshaus. Translating restoration scenarios into habitat conditions: an initial step in evaluating recovery strategies for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 63: 1578-1595. doi:10.1139/F06-055.
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