A Real-Time Inflow Forecasting and Reservoir Optimization System for Optimizing Hydropower Production

Waterpower XVI

Coupling of hydrological and hydraulic simulation models with numerical optimization algorithms has proven to be effective for optimizing operations of reservoir systems with respect to different management objectives. The combination of accurate reservoir inflow forecasting and optimization technology can provide more efficient balanced solutions for multi-purpose operations of reservoir systems and thereby improve the economy of hydropower production. The technology can be used for both long-term planning purposes for deriving optimal operation rule curves and for short-term water management and hydro scheduling. The forecasting and optimization system is established within a decision support system for real-time operation.The developed forecasting and optimization technologies are demonstrated on optimization of the Hoa Binh reservoir in Vietnam considering hydropower production and flood control. Optimization of reservoir operation rules provides optimal solutions that have both a smaller flood risk and a larger hydropower potential compared to the present regulations. Simulations with a balanced optimum solution show a substantial increase of hydropower production of 210 million kWh on average per year. Real-time optimization in normal flow situations provides solutions that trades-off the immediate and the future value of hydropower production. In flood situations, inflow forecast information is used to optimize reservoir releases to meet storage requirements to reduce downstream flooding.


Henrik Madsen, Claus B. Pedersen, Carter Borden