Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwaterspecies have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring criticaldrivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We usedownscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows andincreased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based onempirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast amean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a groupof fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species’ physiological optima and continuednegative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook troutSalvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predictedto decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, isprojected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.
PNAS- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Despite escalating conflict over fresh water, recent years have witnessed a growing realisation that human society must modify its behaviour to ensure long-term ecological vitality of riverine ecosystems. In response, ecologists have been increasingly asked to guide instream flow management by providing ‘environmental flow’ prescriptions for sustaining the ecological integrity of riverine systems.
- Environmental flows are typically discussed in the context of water releases from dams and water allocation for extraction (such as for urban use or irrigation), where there is general agreement that rivers need to exhibit some resemblance of natural flow variability necessary to support a functioning ecosystem. Although productive dialogue continues on how best to define environmental flows, these discussions have been focused primarily on water quantity without explicit consideration of many components of water quality, including water temperature – a fundamental ecological variable.
- Many human activities on the landscape have modified riverine thermal regimes. In particular, many dams have modified thermal regimes by selectively releasing hypolimnetic (cold) or epilimnetic (warm) water from thermally stratified reservoirs to the detriment of entire assemblages of native organisms. Despite the global scope of thermal alteration by dams, the prevention or mitigation of thermal degradation has not entered the conversation when environmental flows are discussed.
- Here, we propose that a river’s thermal regime is a key, yet poorly acknowledged, component of environmental flows. This study explores the concept of the natural thermal regime, reviews how dam operations modify thermal regimes, and discusses the ecological implications of thermal alteration for freshwater ecosystems. We identify five majorchallenges for incorporating water temperatures into environmental flow assessments, and describe future research opportunities and some alternative approaches for confronting those challenges.
- We encourage ecologists and water managers to broaden their perspective on environmental flows to include both water quantity and quality with respect to restoring natural thermal regimes. We suggest that scientific research should focus on the comprehensive characterisation of seasonality and variability in stream temperatures, quantification of the temporal and spatial impacts of dam operations on thermal regimes and clearer elucidation of the relative roles of altered flow and temperature in shaping ecological patterns and processes in riverine ecosystems. Future investigations should also concentrate on using this acquired knowledge to identify the ‘manageable’ components of the thermal regime, and develop optimisation models that evaluate management trade-offs and provide a range of optimal environmental flows that meet both ecosystem and human needs for fresh water.